Tuesday, October 21, 2008

"Shock" and Awe

In order to accept the idea I put forward that Gore would have invaded Iraq as well, you have to reject the conventional wisdom and "storylines" put out by the media surrounding GWB's decision to invade Iraq. Let's look at it from the point of view of a Gore presidency in 2001. September 11 almost certainly happens in the same manner. Gore responds with similar patriotic speeches and calls for justice as GWB did. Al-Qaeda is identified as a target, as well as their camps and bases in Afghanistan. So, we conduct an air campaign and introduce ground troops in a very similar fashion as Rumsfeld/Bush, perhaps more ground troops are committed sooner and there are different strategic concepts, but you get the point.

Pressue begins to mount from both Republicans and Democrats about how to deal with the Saddam problem. Clear Al-Qaeda-Saddam connections exist, and Saddam continues to violate US/UN restrictions. Gore recognizes that the world is drastically changed, and therefore agrees to invade. This is not that hard to believe. Gore probably stays away from the WMD argument. You can cast side Gore's criticism from outside power against Iraq, because that was merely an issue of political convienence. A Gore actually in power would have been responsible enough to pull the trigger on an Iraqi invasion.

Additionally, there would not have been a protracted media campaign questioning the invasion's merits to the same degree. None of the inane "finishing his father's work" or "getting his buddies oil money" comparisons. It is generally easier for Democratic presidents to conduct military campaigns (in the early stages) because so much of the anti-war sentiment is within their own party, so critics don't come out for fear of damaging Gore politically. (See Clinton, Kosovo-Iraq-Somalia) Now, I do agree that in protracted conflicts Dems have a problem if they begin to lose control of their base (1968), but that is beside the point. As to whether a Democratic administration would have run the war more competently, it is difficult to imagine. I think it is wrong to underestimate the political pressure that would have been applied to Gore to invade Iraq-therefore-from a foreign policy perspective one could argue that Bush-Gore would have been quite similar.